Economist and financial analyst, Muda Yusuf, has said the 12.5 percent tariff imposed by the United States on imports from Nigeria is unlikely to have a significant impact on the country’s economy.
Yusuf made the assertion in a statement issued over the weekend while reacting to the tariff introduced by the administration of US President Donald Trump.
Nigerian Newssphere recalls that the Office of the United States Trade Representative, USTR, three days ago imposed a 12.5 percent tariff on imports from Nigeria and several other countries over their alleged failure to comply with US forced labour rules.
Explaining why the tariff is expected to have only a limited effect on Nigeria, the former Director-General of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry, LCCI, cited two major reasons.
According to him, the first is that Nigeria’s exports to the United States are dominated by crude oil, liquefied natural gas, LNG, and other petroleum products, which account for more than 80 percent of the country’s merchandise exports to the US.
He noted that these products are exempt from the new tariff measures, meaning the bulk of Nigeria’s exports will remain unaffected.
The second reason, Yusuf said, is that the United States is not Nigeria’s largest export destination.
Quoting Nigeria’s first-quarter 2026 merchandise trade statistics, he said total exports stood at about N21.6 trillion, with exports to the United States accounting for only 5.56 percent.
He noted that India accounted for 13.09 percent of Nigeria’s exports during the period, followed by France with 9.29 percent, the Netherlands with 9.22 percent, and Spain with 7.68 percent, making the United States the country’s fifth-largest export market.
“From Nigeria’s perspective, however, the economic impact of the tariffs is unlikely to be significant.
“The first reason is that Nigeria’s exports to the United States are heavily concentrated in crude oil, liquefied natural gas and other petroleum products, which account for more than 80 percent of Nigeria’s merchandise exports to the U.S. These products have been exempted from the tariff measures, leaving the bulk of Nigeria’s exports unaffected.
“Second, the United States is not Nigeria’s largest export market. According to Nigeria’s first-quarter 2026 merchandise trade statistics, total exports stood at approximately N21.6 trillion, of which exports to the United States accounted for only 5.56 percent. By comparison, India accounted for 13.09 percent, France 9.29 percent, the Netherlands 9.22 percent, and Spain 7.68 percent. The United States ranked only the fifth-largest destination for Nigerian exports during the quarter.
“These trade patterns significantly moderate Nigeria’s exposure to the new tariff regime. While some non-oil exporters, particularly in agriculture and manufacturing, may experience reduced competitiveness in the U.S. market, the overall impact on Nigeria’s export earnings, foreign exchange receipts and macroeconomic performance is expected to be modest,” Yusuf stated.
