Franklin Ngwu, an economist has warned that Nigeria’s poverty rate could worsen significantly by 2026, with as many as 140 million citizens likely to be classified as poor despite the economic reforms introduced by President Bola Tinubu.
Ngwu, Director of the Public Sector Initiative at Lagos Business School, made the projection during an interview on ARISE Television’s Prime Time on Monday, citing rising unemployment, growing debt, and increasing poverty levels as major concerns.
Ngwu acknowledged that Nigeria needed economic reforms but questioned the manner in which they were implemented, particularly the removal of fuel subsidy and the floating of the foreign exchange market.
“I think the way to look at it is maybe to look at key economic indicators before and after. But in terms of did we need reform? Yes, we needed reforms,” he said. “Another issue is the way the reforms were implemented, basically looking at fuel subsidy removal and then foreign exchange.”
He noted that while some indicators show improvement, others are deteriorating. According to him, unemployment continues to rise, poverty levels are increasing, and public debt is growing, even as government revenue improves and inflation is reportedly easing following a rebasing exercise.
“So if we look at key economic indicators, like unemployment, how are we doing at the moment? It’s rising. Poverty—is it going down or going up? It’s increasing. Debt—is it going up or going down? It’s increasing,” Ngwu stated.
Although inflation has been rebased and is said to be declining to about 15 percent, Ngwu stressed that the real test of the reforms lies in how ordinary Nigerians experience them.
“The main thing is how do ordinary Nigerians see, perceive, and feel about these reforms? And the two key areas will be poverty and unemployment,” he said.
