As the 2027 elections draw nearer by the day, it is worthwhile to examine the electoral chances of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in the forthcoming elections.
To start with, Nigerians have never had it so bad in the governance of our beloved country. The hardships unleashed on Nigerians since May 29, 2023, when this government took over the reins of power from President Muhammadu Buhari, another failed president, have been legendary! As if to fulfil the proverbial adage, “From the frying pan into the fire,” President Tinubu’s government appears to have made the deliberate infliction of sustained pain on Nigerians a policy in every conceivable way.
The relentless imposition of hardship on Nigerians has affected every facet of our national life, ranging from insecurity, where the kidnapping and killing of hundreds of Nigerians on a routine basis no longer make headlines, to a situation in which the government no longer reacts to such incidents with its usual lame statements about “bringing the perpetrators to book.”
Travelling by road across the country has become a nightmare. Apart from the disastrous state of the roads, which makes it appear as though there is no government in place, the fear of kidnappers emerging from the bushes at any time to abduct travellers and demand ransoms, which are often paid, has become routine.
These are the hallmarks of a failed state and a banana republic! The situation has become so bad that Nigerians have lost hope of any succour on the horizon.
Governments the world over have existed since medieval times for the fundamental purpose of preserving and protecting the lives and property of their citizens. However, in Nigeria, buck-passing, incompetence and sustained, monumental corruption have turned insecurity into an industry, with security agencies allegedly colluding openly with criminals and brigands to terrorise the people, with no end in sight.
Farmers are unable to go to their farms across the country for fear of being mowed down in cold blood by bandits, terrorists and other categories of criminal gangs that hold sway and openly negotiate with the government as though they operate their own permanent enclaves of criminality.
Huge sums of money are allegedly paid to these terrorists under the watch of security agents, who are often accused of actively colluding with the criminals to secure their share of the booty!
All these criminal acts thrive only in a country where governance has completely failed. Nigeria is clearly a case study in the failure of governance. In such a situation, what is fuelling the desperate quest for re-election?
I saw a billboard a few days ago advertising the Tinubu/Shettima campaign with the slogan “Renewed Hope 2.0.” I could not help but chuckle at such a disingenuous slogan! Renewed Hope 2.0? What an audacious admission of failure that, after three disastrous terms of an APC administration that has brought Nigeria to its knees, the government is still campaigning to renew the hope of hopeless Nigerians.
One of my friends referred to the slogan as “Renewed Shege,” and he is absolutely right!
It is now clear to the discerning that this government has no clue about governance. The only honourable thing for its members to do is to throw in the towel and leave the scene so that governance can return to this country!
One really good development is the gradual crowding out of primitive electoral rigging through the subtle but sure use of technology. The last Osun State governorship election was a shocker for the disastrous APC government.
With no regard for decency and a brazen determination to ride the Trojan horse to impose a fait accompli, 26 APC governors, the APC national chairman and the Senate president all mobilised to the relatively small state of Osun to capture it from Governor Adeleke at all costs!
And those costs were reportedly very high for the national treasury. With over ₦100 billion allegedly spent on vote-buying, including desperate instances in which a single vote was reportedly bought for as much as ₦50,000, the APC candidate still lost the election woefully in President Tinubu’s home state of Osun, where he hails from Iragbiji, a tiny rural community.
This was despite the fact that the President has never openly acknowledged his Iragbiji roots, claiming instead to hail from Lagos State and adopting the Tinubu family name to belong!
Nigerians, however, are used to what the writer describes as the fakeness surrounding Tinubu and are no longer surprised or embarrassed by what he considers the President’s consistently despicable behaviour and actions.
Finally, the last nail in President Tinubu’s coffin, as far as the 2027 elections are concerned, is the disastrous FBI/CIA files saga.
In what appears to be a strategic legal move, Atiku’s campaign organisation reportedly filed requests in the United States of America seeking the release of records held by the FBI and CIA relating to President Tinubu’s past drug-related controversies.
The requests concern allegations about Tinubu’s activities in the United States, including his admission that he forfeited a substantial sum of $460,000 to the US government in the early 1990s to avoid criminal prosecution over alleged involvement in a heroin-trafficking case in Chicago and its environs.
This move, alongside the reported efforts by Tinubu’s defence team to prevent the release of the records, has, in the writer’s view, damaged the President’s re-election campaign so severely that he may be unable to recover the lost electoral support before the January 2027 elections, which are fast approaching.
This case, coupled with Tinubu’s absence from the high-profile United Nations General Assembly (UNGA), has arguably compounded Nigeria’s diplomatic challenges. The President was reportedly in France during the global event, which was attended by leaders from around the world, including the Iranian president, whose country has been in conflict with the United States.
The fact that French President Emmanuel Macron left his distinguished visitor in France to attend the same event speaks volumes, in the writer’s view, about the state of affairs within Tinubu’s inner circle.
It is also worrisome that, apart from the first UNGA session of his presidency, Tinubu has reportedly skipped subsequent sessions. The writer argues that this pattern, particularly amid renewed public attention to his past drug-related controversies, raises questions about his suitability for high office.
A president embodies the values of the society he is expected to lead. When a president loses the moral authority to govern through alleged subterfuge and clandestine activities, the entire country risks descending into pariah status. This is not good for Nigeria!
The interesting thing is that the 2027 elections cannot be rigged. Nigerians are prepared to ensure that their votes count, are counted accurately, and are properly recorded and announced, just as the writer argues was the case in Osun State, where more than one million voters reportedly turned out in an unprecedented manner to affirm their support for their “dancing governor.” The rest is now history!
Contrary to widely held beliefs, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), under the leadership of its chairman, Prof. Joash Amupitan, will do the right thing and conduct free, fair and credible elections in 2027 and beyond.
The surge in defections by state governors to the APC, leading to a bizarre situation in which 31 of Nigeria’s 36 governors reportedly belong to the party, cannot save the situation. After all, each governor has only one vote, while citizens often hold views that differ from those of their governors, whom they may perceive as oppressors and looters of state funds!
The stage is therefore set for an epic contest in 2027 between Tinubu, Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar. It is clear, in the writer’s assessment, that Tinubu has lost significant support in northern Nigeria and, consequently, faces a serious challenge in finding a pathway to victory in the 2027 elections.
Anybody who did not vote for Tinubu in 2023 may be unlikely to vote for him in 2027. Rather, a significant portion of the votes he received in 2023 could be lost in 2027!
Even though many Nigerians believe that his victory in 2023 was contrived and fraudulent, the country is looking forward to the 2027 contest, in which the writer considers President Tinubu the underdog.
Perhaps this is the appropriate time to urge Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, the ADC candidate in the forthcoming election, to rise to the occasion and act as a statesman by stepping out of the race and declaring his full support for the Peter Obi/Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso ticket, which the writer considers the most viable in the election.
This would make it a two-horse race, in which the likely victors could become apparent even before vote counting is completed on January 15, 2027!
Alhaji Atiku Abubakar should shed the toga of “Contestant General of the Federation” because, at the age of 80 and counting, he should have groomed younger people, including his sons and daughters, to carry on his political legacy.
Chief Madaki Omadachi Ameh, a senior lawyer, is the National Convener of the Public Interest Advocacy Network (PIAN).
