Former United States mayor and public commentator Mike Arnold has raised concerns about President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s health and warned of possible political instability in Nigeria if the President dies before the 2027 general election.
Arnold made the claims in a briefing he said he submitted to an individual who advises US President Donald Trump on international security.
According to Arnold, the briefing is circulated among officials in the White House, the US Department of State and the Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA), among others.
In the statement, Arnold alleged that Tinubu was “gravely ill” and accused the Nigerian government of concealing the President’s health condition.
He cited Tinubu’s extended foreign trip, his absence from the United Nations General Assembly, observations about his movement and questions surrounding his recent national broadcast as reasons for his concerns.
Arnold also referenced an earlier controversy involving an image of Tinubu allegedly generated by artificial intelligence, claiming that it was circulated as an authentic image of the President.
He further alleged that there was a period when Nigerians were uncertain about who was effectively running the country.
Arnold warned that if Tinubu dies before January 16, 2027, there could be an immediate struggle for political control and possible violence.
He also raised concerns about the constitutional succession that would follow a possible death or incapacity of the President, focusing particularly on Vice President Kashim Shettima’s Kanuri background and what he described as tensions between different power blocs in northern Nigeria.
Arnold made a series of allegations linking political developments involving Shettima to the Boko Haram insurgency. He cited the 2012 arrest and subsequent escape of Kabiru Sokoto, who was accused in connection with the 2011 Madalla Christmas Day church bombing, and noted that Shettima was governor of Borno State at the time.
However, Arnold did not provide evidence establishing a connection between Shettima and Boko Haram.
He also drew a comparison between the current situation and the illness of former President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, whose prolonged absence from office triggered a constitutional and political crisis in 2010.
Arnold claimed that Boko Haram escalated its insurgency months after Yar’Adua’s death, pointing to the 2009 prison break in Bauchi as part of the subsequent deterioration of security.
He described Boko Haram and the historic Sokoto Caliphate as opposing forces and warned that a major political crisis following Tinubu’s death could have severe consequences for Nigeria.
Arnold called on the US government to establish the state of Tinubu’s health and publicly communicate its interest in a stable Nigeria and a credible election.
“Bola Tinubu is gravely ill and his government is hiding it badly. A three-week trip extended twice. A third straight UN General Assembly missed. A limp left arm. Not steady on his feet. An official broadcast so cut and spliced that Nigerians counted the edits. Earlier this year, a Grok image of the president was put out as the real thing.
“Find out how sick he is. Then say plainly that America intends to see a stable Nigeria and an honest election — and that we are watching right now,” he said.
Nigeria is scheduled to hold its next presidential election on January 16, 2027, with Tinubu and seventeen other candidates contesting the election.
Nigerian Newssphere reports that Mike Arnold has always been pro-Biafra.
