As voters in Osun governorship election decide who would be piloting the affairs of the state in the next political dispensation; vote-buying, electoral violence would likely determine the winner.
In a state with lowest unemployment rate of 11.7 per cent according to National Bureau of Statistics(NBS) 2020 Data, the possibility of vote-buying would likely seal-through the minds of voters.
Similarly, with the National poverty level drastically increasing, vote-buying would likely outperform candidate’s competence and track-records. For instance by 2020 national poverty level had increased to 72.32 per cent, according to the United Nations (UN) Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). In 2021, the World Bank said the number of persons living in poverty in Nigeria would increase to 79 per cent.
Vote-buying or voters inducement has been a major political instrument in Nigeria’s political landscape since first Republic, 1963.
From inducing voters with food items to Money, the idea has been corruptable instrument to get electoral victory in Nigeria.
However, anyone that could swing these cities: Osogbo, Ede, Ife, Ilesa, Ila, Iree, Ijebu-Jesa, Ikire, Ikirun, Ejigbo, Ilobu, Iwo, Okuku, Igbajo, and Esa-Oke to his favour would mostly emerge victorious in today’s Osun Election.
Osun Election in retrospect
In the First and Second republics, majority of the indigenes were followers of Chief Obafemi Awolowo. The state was carved out of the old Oyo State on August 27, 1999 by the military government under General Ibrahim Babangida. Following a tour of the old Oyo State, the military leader declared that some states were too large, a hint of his intent to split the state.
In the Third Republic, the short-lived civilian administration in the state was headed by the late Alhaji Isiaka Adeleke of Serubawon (Bully Them) fame.
The state had a full dose of progressive governance when Chief Bisi Akande, chieftain of the defunct Alliance for Democracy (AD), was in the saddle. The beat stopped in 2003, following the political earthquake that swept across the Southwest. Only Asiwaju Bola Tinubu survived among the six AD governors in the hitherto poll-confident region.
Akande was displaced by Prince Olagunsoye Oyinlola of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). After four years, Chief Rauf Aregbesola, the symbol of Oranmiyan Group, won the governorship poll on the platform of the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN). But, the loser was declared winner by the electoral commission. The battle shifted from the ballot box to the court. The mandate was restored in 2010.
Although Aregbesola was re-elected in 2014, his party nearly lost the poll in 2018. His successor won by a slim margin. It was a narrow escape for the ruling party.
Today’s exercise is still about the two major parties: the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and the PDP. Other mushroom parties cannot spring any surprise. The 13 smaller parties lack formidable structures to cause any upset
Yet, the election is a repeat match between Governor Gboyega Oyetola and his arch rival, dancing Senator Ademola Adeleke. Both men were once locked in a battle for the Government House in 2018.
There was tension. And controversy followed, as the election was declared inconclusive.
Oyetola eventually triumphed at the supplementary poll, to the chagrin of Adeleke, who was disowned at the last minute – a critical moment – by big chieftains of his from Ife-Ijesa axis who loathed his candidature, led by the grassroots politician, Senator Iyiola Omisore.
But, APC would have even won on first ballot, if it had put its house in order. Reconciliation had failed in the party in the aftermath of the governorship primary. The crisis was compounded by the defection of some chieftains, including a former Secretary to the State Government (SSG), ‘Sheu’ Moshood Adeoti, who ran on the platform of the African Democratic Party (ADP) and got over 3,000 votes, in vain. The involvement of Adeoti in the election resulted in the split of the APC.
2022:Osun Decides, Matters arising
The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), and security agencies have assured that the election will be violence-free and devoid of any form of inducement by political parties and politicians.
However, there are strong fears from observers of political events that today’s election could be exposed to massive rigging and unprecedented vote buying if urgent steps are not taken to curb the trend.
Nigerian Newssphere gathered that unlike the strategy deployed during the governorship election in Ekiti State, some politicians have devised new means to induce voters.
It was further gathered that for some days now, some parties have been wooing potential voters with cash and promises of appointment. Cash payments may not be done near the polling units in some cases as was done in Ekiti and past elections.
Also some All Progressives Congress, APC, and Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, governors are said to be on ground to provide support for their respective candidates as a way of swinging the votes in their parties’ favour.
The parties, Newssphere gathered, are said to have earmarked between N2,000 and N15,000 to induce voters and may increase the amount to N20,000 in strong holds of the opposition.
A source, who spoke to Saturday Vanguard, said: “I heard that vote buying started before the election. The politicians are devising another style to reach out to the electorate, they may not induce voters on the day of the election. They have cornered so many communities and leaders and have given them money. They strategically positioned their link men in these communities.”
It was further alleged that the leading parties have perfected plans to out manouvre each other at the poll.
Expressing worry over this development, a member of the Centre for Democracy and Development, CDD, Election Analysis Centre (EAC), Prof. Victor Isumonah, said at the organisation’s Pre-Election Observation Report on the Osun governorship election that Osun may be worse than Ekiti.
Isumonah said: “This was evident in the Ekiti governorship election and likely to be worse in the Osun State Governorship election. During the 2018 election, three men were arrested for vote-buying by police officers and the International Centre for Investigative Reporting, ICIR, recorded instances of PDP agents partaking in such activities.
“CDD-EAC observers during the June 2022 Ekiti State governorship elections noted several instances of vote buying and called for stronger monitoring by INEC.”
Looming Violence, security assurance
Aside vote buying, residents are worried that the election may be marred by violence.
This worry was borne out of the remarks and desperation of some political actors in the two major parties.
It was gathered that there have been influx of people, who are suspected to be political thugs and cultists in Osogbo, the capital of the
Army personnel take over highways
As a way of preventing breakdown of law and order, Army personnel have mounted check points on major entry points across the state.
Soldiers were seen in strategic areas like Gbongon, Shekona, Ede, Abere and Osogbo, the state capital frisking commuters and commercial buses.
IGP deploys 21,000 police officers for poll
Also, the Inspector-General of Police, Usman Alkali Baba said 21,000 police officers would be deployed for the Osun July 16 governorship election.
The IGP, however, said the deployment was not to intimidate residents but to prevent miscreants from highjacking or disrupting the election process.
Meanwhile, the Deputy Inspector General of Police in charge of the Osun election, Johnson Kokumo, said three surveillance helicopters and 37 units with a unit having about 63 men would be on duty during the poll.
Speaking during a radio programme on Fresh FM in Osogbo, Kokumo, who urged residents not to panic when they observe the helicopters flying around, said maximum security would be provided during and after the poll.
He said about 2,231 riot policemen were also said to have been deployed for the election, in addition to the 21,000 policemen deployed for the exercise.
“The Inspector General of Police, Alkali Baba, has done really well for Osun State. He sent three helicopters for surveillance. They have been flying around the state for security purposes.
15 parties in the poll
Of the 18 registered political parties, 15 fielded candidates for the poll.
The candidates taking part in the exercise include Governor Gboyega Oyetola of the APC; Senator Ademola Adeleke of the PDP; a former Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives, Yusuf Lasun representing the Labour Party; Dr Oyegoke Omigbodun of the Social Democratic Party, SDP; and Dr Akin Ogunbiyi of the Accord Party.
INEC registers 1.9m voters, delivers 335,298 PVCs
Meanwhile the INEC has put the number of registration areas in Osun at 332 with 1,955,657 registered voters and 335,298 Permanent Voter Cards collected so far.
The Resident Electoral Commissioner, REC, in Osun State, Professor Abdulganiyu Raji said his office received 5,305 BVAS from INEC Headquarters on June 24, 2022 adding that the configuration of the BVAS was done at Abuja Headquarters.